A Prelude to Progress: The Pending Inauguration of South Africa's 7th Administration
An Insight into Anticipated Policy Shifts and Leadership Dynamics
Three days away from the first sitting in parliament, the welcoming of the 7th administration has brought much optimism to many in the South African market. However, this euphoric feeling of fixing up the government was also experienced at the start of the 6th administration. Looking back five years, it has failed to live up to the promises it made.
After President Jacob Zuma was replaced by the current President Cyril Ramaphosa, "Ramaphoria" filled the air as many believed Cyril would be able to undo the wrongs of Jacob Zuma and clean up corruption within the ANC. Much of his campaign focused on fixing the ANC and improving the status of South Africa. Cyril Ramaphosa struck a unique balance, having an extensive political legacy as the lead negotiator between the ANC and NP to bring apartheid to an end. Additionally, chairing the National Union of Miners (NUM), he was very well-versed in ANC and South African history. Furthermore, his business ventures and acclaimed billionaire status meant he had a significant interest in the economy. He seemed the perfect fit for a South Africa in dire need of basic services and an improved economy to attract foreign direct investment.
However, faced with the COVID-19 pandemic and the mismanagement of the 500 billion rand COVID relief fund, as well as his own case with Phala Phala, there was concern that Ramaphosa's promises and optimism led to minimal results. Additionally, the civil unrest in July 2021, as Jacob Zuma faced the consequences of the law, left South Africa on the brink. With rumors of Ramaphosa threatening to step down, questions arose about his commitment to politics and what he is willing to weather under this new administration.
President Ramaphosa was rumored to lose support among ANC supporters as he proposed to work with the Democratic Alliance (DA). Additionally, many within the ANC NEC opted for a coalition between the ANC, MK, and the EFF. Ramaphosa's position continues to be under threat, with both the EFF and MK initially calling for his removal before engaging in coalition discussions. It was clear that many feel he protects the interests of the markets and private sector rather than those of the people. Additionally, he has faced limited pressure for his Phala Phala incident. There is growing disdain for President Ramaphosa and his faction.
In comparison, Deputy President Paul Mashatile has seen his corruption charges resurface in the media regarding his involvement in the housing scandal. Many believe this is a way of building a narrative in preparation for his removal from either parliament, the ANC, or both. This has been linked to his lack of willingness to support the proposed “Government of National Unity.” Furthermore, it is believed that this may be used as a negotiating tactic by the DA or may be political if they opt to vote him out of parliament. For many, this brings joy as it appears the ANC is hauling out all “corrupt” officials, evidenced by the removal of Zizi Kodwa and former speaker of parliament Mapisa-Nqakula. It appears the ANC is delivering on many of the promises made at the beginning of Ramaphosa’s administration. There’s a question of whether or not this is politicking. Already, signs of ANC politicking have shown up over the last few months as load reduction is implemented in Johannesburg.
In the first 100 days of this administration, it will be interesting to see how they aim to address the multitude of problems facing South Africa. With markets responding positively and fuel prices dropping by R1.50, there are already upsides to this new administration. However, it is about how they govern over the entire administration that should be evaluated. With many political parties preparing for 2026, it will be interesting to review the new coalition government and evaluate whether or not the optimism felt will lead to actual output.
Though there is much to be optimistic about and reasons to view this positively, it is important to evaluate this government over its entire tenure and not celebrate short-term thinking. South Africa needs a government that prioritizes its future and stability.