Fractured but Central: The ANC's Waning Power and Enduring Influence
As new parties break away and alliances falter, South Africa's political future remains tethered to the legacy—and machinery—of the ANC.
The broad church of the ANC is fracturing. The congregation is no longer interested in the sermons on liberation and transformation—they want change. However, undecided by which party or whom the next leader will be, the ANC remains the only uniting force amongst all politicians.
Recently, it was discovered that Former President Thabo Mbeki wanted to move away from the tripartite alliance between COSATU and the ANC, stating much of the socialist policy to be devoid of the policies of GEAR and BEE, which were rooted much more in social democracy.
The political maneuverings and political chess that were played in the ANC in the ascent of Thabo Mbeki paint a similar picture to what we experience now. Factionalism—split amongst the ‘inziles’, exiles, uMkhonto weSizwe, and the trade unions—all had a hand in the future of the ANC and its leadership. Different factions, jockeying for their constituency to take the top job, created large internal tension.
The SACP, leaning towards a more strongly left-focused party rooted in the ideals of the Freedom Charter, argued for a less neoliberal approach and a greater focus on the economy. They preferred one rooted in the upliftment of black communities, redistribution, and nationalisation of wealth within the country. However, this was countered by the ‘Mbeki-ites’ of the time, accompanied by Mandela, who opted for management of the economy, a focus on developing the country, and valuing the interests of both private and public wealth. Not opposed to transformation—but selective in their approach—moderate.
Moderates and the socialists battled it out. Moderates came out on top initially, with Thabo Mbeki becoming the President of the country. However, they were unable to maintain their grip. A deteriorating country, affected by the HIV/AIDS pandemic, needed a man who could speak to the issues more truly. So we received President Zuma. By no means was the man left- or socialist-leaning, but he committed to being a man of the people and resonated deeply with many on the ground, soon becoming one of the most loved presidents in South African history. However, socialism rose once again in the dissenting voice of Julius Malema, then President of the ANC Youth League. Swiftly dealt with, he was expelled and formed his party—the EFF—the first large party to break away from the broad church.
After years of corruption, failure of basic service delivery, and the largest state capture seen in the country’s history, the ANC returned to a more moderate position in the form of President Cyril Ramaphosa. To some, it may appear that this moderate position is more right-leaning, favouring capital interests. The ANC no longer championed the need for left policy—or so it was thought. Now, the ANC was a party that seemed to have some care for the markets and was potentially willing to clean up its act. But that did not occur.
The Covid-19 pandemic placed a halt on the economy. People were losing jobs en masse, and the cost of living only continued to rise. The moderate position of the ANC failed to cater to the people on the ground. Corruption continued to circle the poisoned chalice the party had now become known for after the Zuma years. The party failed to make any improvements. In 2024, the next defector left in the form of Former President Jacob Zuma.
The uMkhonto weSizwe Party affirmed itself as the liberating black party, ridding us of the private-interest and capital-friendly ANC. Claiming to argue for the nationalisation of mines and the formation of a state bank, it appears they returned to the left-leaning belief that once dominated the ANC. However, they vehemently hate the ANC—or more so, they hate President Cyril Ramaphosa. This is due to the fact that the MKP’s objective does not lie in destroying the ANC, but rather in rejoining the ANC that was stolen from Former President Zuma, who soon also became a former ANC member after being expelled by the party.
So now they lie to parties outside the broad church in search of new belief—a more radical one that could tangibly appear in the means of work, education, food, and basic service. Then came the dissent from the alliance partners, the SACP, who vow to contest the local election in 2026 independent of the ANC. Not declaring an end to the tripartite alliance, but showing their force and influence both within politics and the ANC—clearly signifying concerns around ANC governance, but unwilling to sever the tie between themselves.
However, there appears to be an apparent problem. All the parties that continue to dissent and break up the church into smaller constituencies continue to all have an interest or need for the ANC. All the other dominant parties represent too far a political jump and end for any of the dissenting parties to opt into large-scale national coalitions.
The EFF has deep disdain for the DA and FF+ for representing racism in its institutionalized form. The MKP explicitly calls itself a black party, unwilling to work with the right of the ANC. This leaves them with limited choice—between the ANC or remaining out of government.
Though we are quick to question and play with the idea of what happens to the country in the coming years, there may be a need to think about the elimination of the ANC as a party. With steep electoral declines, it will continue to hold less power. But with the wide spectrum of actors and citizens it represents, it may be the only uniting force within the country.
The MKP has stated that their attempt is to unite the black movement in South Africa and form a unified front, similar to the establishment of the ANC in its founding year—1912. It attempted to do so with the Progressive Caucus, but quickly found itself in direct conflict with the EFF—limiting the potential for a unified congress of people who aimed at securing one ideal.
The ANC, in response to the developing shifts and calls for a socialist state, has signed the most left-leaning, social democratic policies possible. Firstly with the signing of the NHI, which guarantees free healthcare, then the BELA Bill Act, and the Expropriation Bill—all attempting to combat the growing dissent within the ANC. Not to the pleasantries of the DA partner in the GNU.
What is apparent is that all parties at the moment are at the helms of the ANC. Not only is the ANC the one place that caters to the widest spectrum in the country, but the ANC, for the coming years, will dictate which side has more say. Already seen with the exclusion of MKP in KwaZulu-Natal, the ANC remains a core tenant of South African politics for the foreseeable future.
For many South Africans who opt not to vote, the sentiments appear that the left—represented predominantly by the MKP and the EFF—is too radical and has a history of political dealings that carry some alleged criminality. The right is far too anti-transformative and against the progression and empowerment of the masses; therefore, they ought not be in government, reminiscent of an old regime. The middle has been in power for far too long and has done little to nothing in recent years to improve the livelihoods of people on the ground. South Africa is in a deadlock.
Unclear about what will happen in the coming years, the concern moving forward is this: regardless of what party is in power, they will govern under laws legislated by the ANC, in a system infiltrated by the ANC, and one where the ANC will be involved in some capacity. Unless the forces on either side find ways to come together and unify the country in the way the ANC has attempted for many years, it is unlikely the coming years will be the end of the ANC—rather, new beginnings.
The reality of the matter is everyone is coming back to the broad church because they, just as much as the ANC, want to be the leaders and acquire the benefits of leading the church.