The GNU Promised Stability. Now It’s Hanging by a Thread.

A high-stakes budget battle, political infighting, and shifting alliances—can South Africa’s coalition government survive the storm?

Three days await the fate of the GNU and South Africa as a country. The National Assembly votes on the fiscal framework of the country. The DA and the ANC appear no closer to an agreement than they were weeks prior. Now, the country holds its breath as it charts a crash course of coalition politics.

The Citizen expresses, "GNU on the brink of collapse as budget crisis deepens," as the ANC potentially explores partners outside of the GNU to pass a budget. The euphoric savior narrative that was drummed around the partnership appears to be fading fast.

Finance Minister Enoch Gondogwana pushed ahead with a 1% VAT increase over the next two years. The DA has been strictly opposed to the financial burden South Africans have to carry due to government inefficiencies and mismanagement. DA leader John Steenhuisen's call for a review of the budget entirely has placed the ANC and the DA at loggerheads.

The report that appeared in The Citizen expressed greater nuance than just the budget and VAT increase, rather than merely reclaiming political ground. The DA expressed the need for amendments to the Expropriation Act, a council for the NHI that includes the private sector to attract investor confidence, and the establishment of a review committee conjointly with the ANC. It is apparent they want to have a greater hand in political decision-making and policy.

As mentioned in The Citizen, "The DA also emphasises in its document that it is not seeking a 'tactical victory' over the ANC regarding the budget but that they are seeking a 'strategic partnership' with the ANC in the GNU.

'We accept that the ANC has almost twice as much support as the DA, and so we do not expect a disproportionate amount of power, but we do expect our fair share, and we are willing to enter a partnership in which both parties work collaboratively to take South Africa forward.'”

The Secretary-General, Fikile Mbalula, stated on March 13, a week prior to the increased tension, "As expected, the DA has once again revealed its anti-transformation agenda by opposing this progressive budget proposal," he said.

"Their opposition is not based on concerns for fiscal responsibility but is instead a desperate attempt to undermine transformation, protect white monopoly capital, and roll back the democratic gains of the past three decades."

It appears that a smokescreen has been used to convince the South African public that the concerns had been VAT-focused and about the protection of citizens.

It is reasonable to believe that economic growth in the country will result in an improved economic environment and increased living standards. However, that remains the reality for only a minority of the population. Issues such as social justice, education, basic service delivery, and school oversubscription require practical and current solutions.

The last time people were promised improvement, freedom, access to the economy, and equality, they were given a lot of promises—fulfilled with little— and now bear the burden of constant government regulation.

The reality is that the ANC does need to take accountability for the current economic situation. Having been the party in charge for 30 years, there has not always been a clear and focused economic plan. There has been an expectation to keep extracting from the public, increasing taxes, and pushing austerity measures to their limits. They cannot afford failure.

Failure of the government and the ANC would mean the failure of a project that started in 1912 and has lived for more than a century. These moments, these decisions, and these outlooks will define our country for years to come.

Does the ANC choose to abort the GNU in favor of a more politically aligned force in the EFF? Will that be the end of the GNU? The DA says yes: "The ANC is now actively seeking to end the GNU. The DA understands the ANC is now seeking a budget deal with the EFF. It is choosing economic destruction with the EFF over a partnership with the DA."

But would that be a failure of the government? A failure of leadership, unable to stop the doomsday coalition they claimed plagued the country's future when they walked into the new normal of coalition government?

Would it be a failure within the ANC if they are unable to reel back civil society and maintain an already shrinking and fracturing support base? Does this mean celebration for Julius Malema as he climbs the ranks in politics and secures seats in government through a new coalition?

Do South Africans have to continue believing in miracles—moments where politics is put aside for the well-being of the people? Will South African politics actually become about the people and not the interests politicians hold?

The answer is that we can only wait and see. As we approach a year of this coalition in the coming months, we will also be approaching the midpoint of the first Government of National Unity.

Even the government under then-President Mandela, galvanized by all the euphoria in the world, managed to collapse unity in this country. Back then, it was a partnership by choice. Now, these decisions are necessary as they set the course of coalition politics in South Africa.