Unrest Is Returning to South Africa and the Warning Signs Are Clear

Rising tensions, political unrest, and growing public anger point to a looming crisis as leaders exploit chaos and confidence in the state continues to crumble.

Mentions of coups being planned and explosive allegations by General Mkhwanazi provided context ripe for civil unrest. Already, many are threatening “round two,” and #HandsOffMkhwanazi begs the question: who benefits from a lawless and unruly populace?

There is no denying that confidence in the state's authority and the President's ability is on a steady decline. The inability to respond effectively to the urgency and dire need for justice and accountability in South Africa has provided ground for politicking and re-invoking fear that what took place in the July 2021 unrest could once again occur in the future of South Africa.

It is important to characterize civil unrest as an attempt to delegitimize the state's ability to govern and protect the people of South Africa. Thinking back to the 2021 unrest, it was done as a means to pressure the authorities to release former President Zuma, who had been found in contempt of court due to his refusal to appear in front of the Zondo Commission. The impacts of the unrest extend well beyond 2021.

The South African fiscus was R50-billion poorer, and the event was named as one of the contributory factors to the shrinking of the economy by 1.5%. The government had 350 civilian deaths on its hands, and joblessness followed as businesses struggled to recover from the damage caused during this period—something that could only be ascribed as a failure of the ANC and the government.

Former President Mbeki, recognising this context, warned it is likely to give way to something chaotic. Citing in 2022, at an address at a memorial for Jessie Duarte: “You can’t have so many people unemployed, so many people poor,” he said. “One day it’s going to explode.”

South Africa is plagued by inequality, lack of basic services such as education, health care, and youth unemployment. South Africa is a country that is in dire need of solutions, and for many, those solutions can no longer be promised in election campaigns and State of the Nation Addresses, but need to present themselves now.

Symbolising the desire for change are political parties that intend to provide a radical path to improving people's livelihoods. The Economic Freedom Fighters and the uMkhonto weSizwe Party represent a constituency of pro-socialist politics that intend to disrupt the system and solve major issues which the ANC has failed to address.

At the helm of both these parties are disgruntled former ANC members—Julius Malema and former President Jacob Zuma. Both individuals intend to destabilise the ANC majority and forge a new path for millions of South Africans.

Unable to shake the ANC entirely, with the EFF suffering electoral decline and the MKP being kept out of government in KwaZulu-Natal due to the Provincial Government of Unity, both parties have had to find ways to make political strides as the opposition to the forces of the Government of National Unity.

Following the recent allegations of General Mkhwanazi, both parties have moved to mobilise behind the General and delegitimise the state—and particularly the President's ability to take action. The EFF’s Eugene Mthethwa said, “We are General Mkhwanazi, and General Mkhwanazi is us,” accompanied by online threats and hashtags calling for “round two” of civil unrest. These started circulating across platforms, backed by Duduzile Zuma-Sambudla, MK Party MP and daughter of former President Jacob Zuma. It asks: maybe there is political victory in chaos?

Duduzile Zuma-Sambudla, who already sits trial for the July unrest in 2021, has seen her father’s party explode on the electoral front in their first national election. In the background remains the remnant that the ANC was unable to resolve and return the state back to normal after 2021.

The threat of unrest once again provides potentially an even larger opening that would find more than just the ANC liable for the failure to improve the state. It may be that the GNU partners—especially that of the DA—would have to deal with the failures to curb unrest and to resolve social issues.

Parties in the opposition may use these failures and the inability to effectively get answers from implicated ministers to their benefit. Already, in less extreme performances, ActionSA have taken to the streets demanding justice and investigation into the allegations. It has been a direct weaponisation of the anger many have felt toward the ANC and the GNU as a whole.

Online, the sentiment has been one where Mkhwanazi has been framed as a hero who may not be touched—limiting the President's power to act decisively.

The warnings on social media platforms, using phrases such as “Round Two is coming,” “Touch Mkhwanazi and see what happens,” and “We haven’t forgotten July 2021.” Others include social media campaigns and reposts under hashtags such as #HandsOffMkhwanazi, #WeStandWithMkhwanazi, and #JulyRiots2.0. The anger is apparent, and the context is ripe for something much larger than what the country can imagine.

Mthethwa mentions, “The mere fact that people are on the streets before anything happens, it is a ticking time bomb,” potentially having provided the opposition a chance to maximise on the opportunity presented to them and stand for a side that will ensure and garner accountability within the country.

He further went on to state: “Should… anything happen to Mkhwanazi, I want to second the very notion and the sentiment that this country will see fire.” Raising the concern: why are opposition parties not calling for peace and the respect of due process, but rather playing into the desire for chaos?

The real question that stands in front of South Africa is this: if the MKP—which already calls for the abolishment of the Constitution, wears military outfits, and backs a general who declared he was ready to fight for this country even if it meant death—then maybe there is some benefit in chaos?

Remember, the ANC was unable to recover from the first round of unrest. It is unlikely to recover from a second round, and service delivery is only expected to suffer more at the hands of the ANC—leaving no option but the opposition.

Maybe the nation needs to question more deeply: who were the winners of the July Unrest in 2021, and who would be the winners of civil unrest the second time? Maybe then there will be a clear understanding of those who represent the interests of South Africa, and those who dissent chaos for political ambitions in hopes of seeing the ANC become a thing of the past.

There is no benefit to burning buildings, losing jobs, and a shrinking economy which is already extremely fragile. So, in the same way there are calls for justice and accountability, it is important the country as a whole reinforce the need for peace, stability, and due process. For if not, the winners may be losers—and the losers may simply continue on with their lives unaffected and unaccounted for.

It is moments such as these that the country needs to lean on its collective belief that once liberated the country—to find a civil way forward and avoid a repeat of the past. Simultaneously, there is a need to get the government to respond more urgently to a situation that gives birth to something that may change the course of the country forever.